Speaking of Disasters

This avian flu thing is bad news. When the World Health Organization is telling you it ain't a matter of if the pandemic is going to occur, it's just a matter of how soon, it makes you think that living below sea level or on an earthquake fault is no big deal.

Dr. Jai P. Narain, Director of WHO's communicable diseases department, took time out from a Southeast Asia health summit in Sri Lanka to tell the press: "We may be at almost the last stage before the pandemic virus may emerge. Whether the avian influenza pandemic will occur, that is not the question any more, [but] as to when the pandemic will occur."

The Register, where this report comes from, is a bit of a rag. Still, I was a somewhat surprised not to read anything about this comment in any newspaper. Reading the regional WHO web site isn't any more uplifting.

According to the report, the H5N1 virus appears to have established itself as endemic in parts of Asia,with "a permanent ecological niche in poultry." Human cases continue to emerge, and "the virus may be evolving in ways that increasing favor the start of a pandemic," the report says.

H5N1's potential to ignite a pandemic depends, however, on its acquiring the ability to pass easily between humans. There are two ways this could occur. H5N1 could infect someone who also is infected with a human form of influenza A, and the two viruses could exchange genes (reassortment). Or, the virus could adapt in an evolutionary fashion during subsequent human infections, acquiring the ability to transmit itself efficiently from one person to another (adaptive mutation). The deadly 1918 Spanish flu pandemic is believed to have been caused by a virus that mutated in this way.

I don't think holding your breath is going to be the answer.